Lula Edges Out Balsonaro

Illustration courtesy: Yeonjae Lee

The inherent power of radical rhetoric to shift a politically unstable country has been well demonstrated through the run-off elections recently held in Brazil. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) prevailed over incumbent right-wing politician Jair Bolsonaro in a run-off on October 30th. Lula will serve a non-consecutive third term as president of Brazil following the closest election in recent memory. With all ballots counted, the left-wing Lyla won 50.9% to Bolsonaro's 49.1% the narrowest margin since Brazil's return to democratic elections in 1989. Lula's win makes the first election in Brazil where the incumbent has failed to win re-election (The Economist). ​ As voting concluded, all eyes turned to Bolsonaro, who had spent months showing skepticism about Brazil's computerized voting system. Bolsonaro insisted that he would only accept a triumph for himself. Two days before the election, he appeared to soften his stance, telling journalists that whoever got the most votes would be the next president. Supporters of his campaign made a futile last-minute attempt to postpone the election on the pretext that radio stations in the northeast were not play Bolsonaro campaign ads (Associated Press). ​ At the end, according to Antonio Lavareda of the polling company Ipespe, the runoff was a contest between two candidates with significant rejection rates, During the pandemic, Bolsonaro popularity ratings fell. lyla's reputation was damaged by a corruption scandal known as Lava Jato which began in 2014. Experts projected that Lyla wold win the election in early October, after dominating polls for months. While Lula defeated Bolsonaro in the first election, Brazil required a 50% majority which pushed Brazil to a runoff. As Bolsonaro government increased spending on poor voters, opened a new credit line, and expanded a cash transfer program that pays 600 reais ($113) per month to 21 million poor households, the race became more competitive in the month leading up to the run-off (The Economist). ​ Interestingly, voting in Brazil is compulsory for citizens between the ages 18 to 70 including for residents living abroad. To sway undecided oters, smear campaign dominated the final days of the election. Lyla painted Bolsonaro as being crooked, and Bolsonaro depicted Lyla as not caring about the underpreivilegd. Volence broke out multiple times in the tense environment. Over the course of the campaign, at least seven people were killed in disputes related to the election (The Economist). Brazilians dreaming of a reliable democracy hope that Bolsonaro does not follow Donald Trump by falsely claiming fraud and pointing blame to structural factors, Although it seems like Bolsonaro will peacefully leave the office, his supporters will continue to reject the results until possibly even until the next election (The New York Times). Although Brazil may have moved a step closer to political stability, the cost of violent rhetoric and a greed for power seems to have robbed Brazilian civilians access to the inherent value of democracy: the ability to long for a better tomorrow. ​